Sunday, 27 February 2022

WHAT ARE UNICORNS MADE OF ?

Dedicated to all founders and investors who have made this world so dynamic, interesting and wonderful.




Unicorn evokes intrigue!

Word "Unicorn" was coined By Aileen Lee in 2013, when she thought it was a Unique phenomenon to have 39 startups with valuation more than 1 billion. She would not have imagined that world may have 1000 plus of them, 7 years later. 

As on today, March 2022, there are 1032 Unicorns in the world. With the cumulative Valuation of 3400b$. This is 1.5 times of India’s GDP.

Isn’t this incredible?

US has 487 unicorns, and China has 301 Unicorns, and India 95.  In 2021, India added 44 Unicorns in year 2021. 

Pareto principle works here too…..Highest valued 3 startups, ByteDance  Space-x,  Stripe ; accounts for 10% of the total valuation. 

Wow ! This is called real success!

India has lots of ground to cover. However, we are doing rather well.

India’s highest valued startup Biju’s at 21b$ is the 13th In the world rank. It is 1/10th the size of the most valued startup worldwide. 

I was so glad and proud to land in Udaan. A 3b$ company. Later I was humbled by the fact, that there are 248 startups worldwide which are larger than Udaan today. Inspirational and depressing...at the same time.

While India is catapulted into an entrepreneurial spree. 2016-17. India registered 733 startups. In five years the no has reached to 62000 in Jan 2022.

Which means that probability of a start up to become a unicorn in India is 0.00002% !! Which is so very low !!



Such intelligence, such grind, such commitment, and so low outcome. Disheartening.

I attempted a startup 3 years back and failed ! And fortunately, I got the chance to be a CXO in Udaan, which is a large, very successful Unicorn. Had a chance to learn as what ingredients are required to make a Unicorn. And what should I have done differently. 

Created a hypothesis of it. Please add or critique it.





Journey of being a Unicorn

1. Qualifying

2. Clearing Choices Paradox

3. Building Ecosystem 

 

First Qualifying  on following aspects:

Startups should check for following 5 eligibility Criterion by asking hard questions to themselves.

     Disruptive: Without and exception, all Unicorns have brought disruption in their own field. 

They have chosen large canvas, large problem to solve and solved it radically. Snapchat, Dream 11, Ola cabs, cred, Meesho… Long list. Are you solving for small idea like college friends to come together or you are altering the way a specific function is done at a national level. And in today's economy there are significant no of things which needs to be addressed. Pick a large problem.

 

2.       Tech focused: A recent study suggested that 87% of Unicorns are built on the tech., 7% are hardware and rest 6% are services and products.

  Funding is also easy in tech space. Hence, quick check, if tech is going to play a large part in scaling up your startup ?.  Razorpay, Zerodha, Urban company, policy Bazaar, Pine labs, Groww, billdesk… and so on... had advantage of tech helping in business transformation.

  

3.       The firsts : There is clear advantage of being first in the segment.

  However Unicorns also need to be on toes and keep on innovating to remain first as competition build up.  Nykaa, Coindx, Udaan, Fractal analytics, curefit, InMobi etc. 

Lots of time, FIRST CAN BE LARGEST.





4.       Consumer focused : 62% if the unicorns so far are in B2C space. 

They change the way individuals operate. Eg, Spotify, Swiggy, Zomato, Byjus, Makemytrip, Bigbasket, Grofers, rivigo, licious, Spinny, mamaearth..etc. Even if you are in B2B, consumer centricity is at the core.


5.       Efficient : MPV ( Minimum viable product) comes from the need of being Lean. 

It shall have must haves and yet very efficient. In cost and in it’s outcomes. Also a pertinent is how much shall one invest in head count ahead of revenue curve. Hence efficiency is very important.

 

Clearing 6 Choice Paradoxes :

1.       Intent paradox : In my interactions with the founders of Unicorns, I have observed that they are strongly driven by urge to solve a large problem. Some of them end up being Unicorns. On the other hand, people who are driven by need of being a serial entrepreneurs and make quick money, don’t end up being that…. It’s a paradox perhaps.

There is no shortcuts to success. And there has to be a strong reason for one to bear the pain of kicked around, not getting paid, suffer through years of misery, with no certainty of success for about 4.5 years, which is world average to get to unicorn.  Only one thing can keep founders going…. Hope ! that someday people’s life would be changed for good.

 

2.       Knowing paradox : If you know what to do, chances are others know it too. And It’s unlikely to be disruptive. Hence lots of unicorn founders start with not knowing exactly. They have some sense of opportunities and risks, rest keeps on coming up. Funding, market situations, regulations, etc are all very dynamic. Innovation is the only sustainable competitive advantage a company can have.

 

3.       Scale Paradox : Scale first or Shape first is a continuous debate. Assumption is that scale gives cost efficiency which gives shape. Not always in my view. There are numerous example of unicorns still losing tons of money. Hence, prudent thing should be to set up a threshold of scale, where business should become profitable. And then again push the scale. Nykaa has proved it without doubt for all of us. Harshil Mathur, Founder Razor pay stated “The idea is to prove a scaleable business model first and grow from there”.


4.       Efficiency Paradox : Efficiency or Agility is another Paradox which comes when business becomes large and is lead by professional teams, instead of the founder. Systems and processes creates strength at the cost of speed. What is a good way out ? Perhaps get into cumbersome systems slowly. Give priority to speed. As there is still lots to be learnt and systems  are best fluid. This has been a great learning for me.


5.       People paradox : There are very very few people who are good problem solver and also good institution builder. Hence there is a fine balance of talent mix required. And also it’s a subtle art of allocating responsibilities so that best of both is available. I think that a Mentor can add lots of value here.


6.       Love paradox : Lot of the times, founders are not the best people to take org beyond a certain level. And that is the time, when they should be willing to let control go, of the child which they love more than their lives. The maddening affinity which helped business come to certain level, has to be given up. Painful but necessary. Letting YOUR unicorn go.... For Good.




 

Ecosystem buildup stage :

I learnt term GLASS WALL. It’s the term used to get the consumer into the ecosystem and not let them go out. This leads to concepts like Alibaba and super apps.

Here is the story of Alibaba group, which blew me out of my Mind… And which made it a whooping 650b$ co. in 2020.

It’s know that Alibaba started with the B2B business in 1999. Got into local markets through 1688.com, then into B2C through Aliexpress, extended into C2C through Taobao in 2003, Payment was enabled through Alipay. They didn’t stop there, branded mall was launched in 2008 as Tmall, and premium international business through Lazada. Wow…

It does not stop here....The Unicorns rides further in the rain of money..



They further created supporting business like Taobao data cube for insight into data of aggregated demand and helped sellers, Got into live commerce through Taobao live, Created a search engine etao in 2010 for online shopping, Youku was launched as a combination of youtube and Netflix which helped consumer stay with Alibaba world, and best of it is when they launched Wasu Media internet limited as the digital entertainment company.

You thought it was end of it… Now hold on…

Alibaba has presence in Cloud computing ( Alibaba cloud), Innovative initiatives are lead by Dingtalk, amop.com, Health business – Alihealth, Local consumer service – ele.me , koubel, Logistics service – Cainiao, Deals business – Taobao deals, ticktok equivalent – Taobao short video, Grocery delivery – Taobao Grocery…. There are other also… idlefish, Fliggy, Juhuasuan.com, Alimama……..

Jackma would have thought in this mind in Mandarin… “ Chodunga Nahin !!”.

Indian Unicorns would also go in the same direction. Where one business would start to feed into another to create a GLASS WALL.

These are some of the Bitter sweet truths of getting on a journey of Unicorn.


I hope and pray that given the talent in India, we see more Unicorns, the just being 0.00002% so far. These are the soon to be Unicorns, we all are watching intently.








Saturday, 26 February 2022

4 MYTHS OF VALUE FASHION

 


 

 

There are 4 common myths about value fashion. Which got busted for me, as I got the chance to look at this incredible world  of value fashion closely in last 2 years. Let's put the context upfront.

Context of Market ?

We all know that Value fashion market is very big. 

Yes, of the total Lifestyle market in India of about 90b$ ( 7 lac crore), 25% comes from Metros, 12% sales comes from Tier -1 and 65% comes from Tier-2,3,4. For our conversation today, we would focus on the Tier – 2,3,4.

Bharat : The Rural India, Tier 2+  accounts for about 5 lac crore worth of lifestyle sales. That’s massive. It's more than National GDP of 60% of 216 countries in the world.

Also, It’s very large and complicated supply chain system, which sells about 2 crore garments and shoes every day !! If we put all the fabric use together in straight line it would go over the boundary of India 10 times. Every day ! Yes !

Lifestyle system is an age old, mature system. It has attained high level of efficiency over it’s evolution through 500+ centuries in India.

These garments are sold in very small stores. Which can accommodate only 2-3 customers at any point in time. These 8+ lac stores, does average business of 2.5 lac a month.

What is the average selling price ? 

A Men’s garment is sold at about 500 rs, women at 200 Rs and Kids at 100 rs. MRP could be anything, nobody cares. What matters is selling price.

I have never imagined that we would end up selling a garment as low as 39 Rs a piece… ( Kids Garment)…with profits, logistics cost etc built into it…

Men shirt takes up 30% of the men’s world. But nothing can beat Sarees, which accounts for half of the women wear sales.

Shall we talk about the Myths now ?    

 

Myth 1 : Value is Low price and low quality.

Indian apparel customer perhaps is the most knowledgeable customer on this planet. For ages, they have lived in the community of weavers, spinners, dyers, sellers in their families. They have very good eye for quality & Value for Money. While they are oblivious of the technology, but they have good sense of how much to pay for a garment.


It’s easier to sell a value induced garment, which is higher priced, rather than a cheap garment. Indian customer would be willing to pay a little higher for the value addition in the garment, but not go after poor quality.

Hence the route to enter this market is to find out ways of fabric techniques and garmenting styles which looks value induced but are not expensive.

 

Myth 2 : Latest fashion is available in Italy.


Upcountry customers does not have degrees and visiting card to display their identity. However, they have Garments ! And hence their willingness to experiment. 

Look at the colors and weaves in sarees, colors and motifs in the kalamkaris and bandhanis, cut and sew techniques in Men's shirts, Appliques in kids garments… An Italian designer may drown in awe of how this value segment leans on garish yet fast changing fashion.

Fashion originates in this segment from blatant copying the international fashion shows. And lots of the times, the garment presented in the fashion show hits the stores of Milan later than the village in Punjab. India is possibly quickest in interpreting the international fashion. Couple of weeks and its there for you to pick up at 5$.

We know ladies need to buy a saree which nobody has worn / seen earlier in the history of mankind! And Indian weavers, printers have capability to deliver on this audacious ask. It can happen only in India! Surat's ability to mix the differing concepts into a new one is just amazing and ever evolving.

The only way for organized players to win this race is to partner with the system and create scaling capability.

 

Myth 3: Small retail stores does not use the visual merchandising techniques.


Such a small store…. It hardly has any space to keep merchandise and for people to stand…. Retailer has no option but to be creative to do visual merchandising to push sales. 

They use hollow plastic mannequins tops for displays of best sellers, posters on the walls and in front of the counter, danglers hanging from the roof, folding beds with garments outside of store, 9” shelves on top to display of left feet shoe.. endless.…Low cost! But certainly innovative!

However because of lack of exposure, they are not best in aesthetic. Hence prevents them to match organized retail experience. Hence a player who can help small retailer display better would become a preferred partner for them.

 

Myth 4 : Value fashion system does not use Data.


Is data only numerical? Small manufacturers establish their own way of knowing what sells in domestic market. What they see moving out, what they hear from distributors, what they see others producing, helps them develop an unexplained, non-replicable intuition. Data is less numerical, more intuitional. For small business, it works well !

If a demand / sales partner like a B2B portal , generates and offers more insights to these manufacturers, he would be loved beyond comprehension.

There are more myths to be busted. I have just scratched the surface. It would probably need lifetimes to know it all. My respect for the small retailers and cottage manufacturers and the existing supply chain increased multifold, as I explored ways to enable and partner with them.

Bharat is large, complex, efficient and magnificent. Wonders can happen through technology advancement which would help Bharat to win in these turbulent times. I am fortunate to be the part of the digital revolution of Value Fashion of Bharat.